Confession: I Have No Idea When We’ll Be Able to Retire
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I have a confession. I might be slightly jealous of all the people who know exactly when they will be able to retire. Nothing personal.
I know dozens of people who have their retirement planned out to the exact day. I even know a guy who has a retirement app that counts down to his retirement to the second. What the hell! I can’t imagine how exciting it would be to know exactly when we’ll retire. I wish I had it all planned out like that, but there are several factors that make that kind of planning impossible for us. Let me explain.
Where We Are Now
Both Greg and I turned 35-years-old this year and our kids will turn 4 and 6 in just a few months. Our only debts are mortgages on our primary residence and two rental homes. Since both of our rental properties pull in a monthly profit, I don’t really count them. So in my eyes, our only debt is our primary mortgage. We do pay a little extra each month, but it’s currently scheduled to be paid off in 11-12 years. Other than those debts, we owe nothing to anyone – not even a car payment. We also keep our expenses low so we can save as much as we can.
As of right now, we’re saving around 50% of our gross income and spreading it around as much as we can. For example, we have SEP IRAs and Roth IRAs that we’re able to max out most of the time. We also invest in mutual funds and College 529 Savings Plans. And until this year, we also saved in a Health Savings Account (HSA). When it comes to savings, we’re doing really awesome. Obviously it helps when the stock market goes gangbusters for a year or so…but still. As long as we keep stashing money away and maxing out our accounts, we should have plenty of money long before we are 50. But there’s a problem.
Here’s Why I Have No Idea When We’ll Be Able to Retire
Although it looks like we have all our ducks in a row, I still have no idea when we’ll be able to retire. Here’s why:
- Our kids are almost 4 and 6. The fact that my kids are so young makes it hard for me to plan ahead. For example, we want to help pay for their college education, but where will they go? A state school? Harvard? Beauty college? No matter how many times I ask my 5-year-old what she wants to do when she grows up, she won’t tell me!
- Our income fluctuates. Self-employment means having unlimited earning potential, but it also means you could lose it all. I’ve more than tripled my income since I worked in a 9-5 job, but will it last? If it does, I’m gonna be uber-prepared for early retirement. But if it doesn’t? It will simply take me longer to save enough money to retire.
- We’re conservative about money. Maybe it’s just the way I was raised, but I like to plan for the absolute worst case scenario. I would rather have more money than we need than end up eating cat food in retirement.
- Taxes. The more we earn as a family, the more I start to feel like we’ve reached the point of diminishing returns. For example, health insurance in our state is cost-prohibitive because we make too much to earn a subsidy. Meanwhile, we continue to lose out on certain tax credits as our income climbs. Sometimes I think we would be better off saving and investing as much as we can right now – then living on as little as possible. Hell, maybe we’ll even retire early and get on the dole! The option looks better every day! {Kidding…kind’ve.}
Here’s Why I Keep Saving
I don’t know when we’ll be able to retire, but I still keep on saving. I still use a zero-sum budget and stash money in retirement as quickly as I can. I still study grocery store ads, make meal plans, and tell my kids “no” about 75% of the time.
We may not know exactly when we’ll retire, but with every move we make, we’re getting closer. And that’s why I keep saving – because one day we’ll get there.
And until that day comes, I’ll keep on saving.
Do you know when you’ll be able to retire? What steps are you taking to make your retirement dreams come true?
Additional reading:
Well, we know that we will not be able to plan an early retirement as we are still in our mid-fourties but, now that we have embraced a frugal lifestyle, we try to save as much as possible in order to have the possibility to pursue our dreams once we will be retired!
Sabrina,
I too was in my forties (42) when I started focusing on earlier retirement. And it IS possible to get there, even if you’re starting “late.”
In my case, I made a plan to retire by 57, which I would be able to do by saving 50% of my net income for 15 years. But with a few lucky investment breaks, a profitable home sale, and some more “budget scalpeling”, I actually managed to retire at 53.
So, don’t just assume you cannot do it. Go back and take another look. You may be able to set yourself free sooner than you think.
Right until l retired, l didn’t know when l would retire, if that makes any sense at all. With your kids being so young, l think it is near impossible to predict with so many varying factors. You just keep plugging along, and hope for the best. I hope it’s sooner than later 🙂
Me too! =)
Don’t feel bad- we don’t have any idea of when we might be able to retire either! In our case, the reason is a combination of not knowing how many kids we will end up having (we will likely do at least one more adoption), not knowing how much additional adoption(s) may cost- not to mention additional college educations! We also want to move, but we are not sure about future salary as compared to current. In other words, way too many unknowns!
Yep, same here.
My daughters have informed me of their career choices. My seven year old will be a rock star and the five year old will be the Tooth Fairy. So I’m thinking saving for college is a waste!! I kid, I kid!
However, it goes to show life is way too unpredictable to be so set on a date. Like much in life it will happen when it happens. I still don’t even know if I will really ever retire. While I don’t necessarily want to be in the corporate grind, I don’t know that I will ever want to not work. Maybe just more on my passions…but I don’t think any of us will think less of you because there is no countdown on the top of your page!!
Ha- thanks!
And yes, my daughter says she is going to be a singer too. =)
But even with all your worries, you\’re still doing better than most of us! You have 2 kids and you\’re saving 50% of your income. That\’s just great!
Thanks!
I don’t know when I’ll be able to retire either as our kids are super young, and we just don’t have everything mapped out yet. You have set yourself up very well though! I’m sure you’re way ahead of most people your age!
Some people!
Don’t you guys both work from home now? You see you’ve already GOT what most of us people who are chasing after early retirement have – freedom and flexibility. No boss or meetings or commutes, etc. So while you might have the proverbial plus-million-dollar nest egg that you happily live off of for the rest of your life, the two of you have achieved more of what retirement will be like at age 35 than the rest of us are daring to put on the line.
Yeah, but I work at least 50 hours per week! It’s not quite the same thing! I want to quit working one day! =)
Wouldn’t it be possible to reach your hypothetical “safety area” in terms of money saved and then cut back on work without retiring? That’s a doable goal.
Well yeah, that’s the plan. But the whole point of this post is that I don’t know when that will happen!
I’m in the same boat Holly, with three children 15, 15 and 12 which we do plan on helping fund their college and just recently becoming debt free we have not idea either, but still working on building wealth to get there.
I suppose that’s all we can do for now!
Yay! I feel you Holly! I really don’t know as well. What I am sure of is that it’s gonna happen. There are lots of factors to consider like education of kids, income, and other expenses. That being said, I am setting my mind that I need to retire sooner than expected to keep me determined to save more and to spend less.
That is pretty much our strategy too. The moves we make now will ultimately determine how well we do.
I think the fact that you’re planning and preparing for retirement is way more important than actually knowing when it will happen. I don’t really keep track of exactly when I will retire, since retirement for me just means 100% freedom to not have to work if I don’t want to. Though I don’t think I will want to stop working for a while…
I may not either. I don’t think I can envision myself not working in any capacity. I would just prefer my work to be voluntary.
I think that planning and saving is all we can really do. I’m a SAHM, but my Mr. has a defined benefit pension plan at work. We know the day that he can retire on his full pension. But even then, who knows what changes the plan will go through before he hits that retirement age. Maybe they’ll push it back 5 or even 10 years. We can’t know. So, we just keep planning and saving like you in the mean time.
I hope they don’t push back his defined pension! Ugh!
We’re pretty much in the same boat Holly – save for an extra kid and no rental properties. 🙂 We’re saving as much as we can across our SEPs, Roth IRA’s, taxable brokerage accounts and our HSA so we’re doing fine there, but there are too many unknowns at the moment. Sure, it’d be great, on one level, to say I know the year we’ll be able to hang it up, but we don’t know that so we’re just continuing to do what we can and focusing on that.
Pretty much!
My general goal has been to lower-case-r retire by 35, though of course that will probably get pushed back with the addition of children to the family. Given the variability of your situation, I can definitely see it as something difficult to plan. Though, of course, some may argue that being able to work in your yoga pants is a sweet enough deal, who needs retirement anyway? 😉
I don’t like that argument! I’m certainly not retired over here! =)
Retire at 35 and then have your kids. No day care costs and any costs you were incurring related to your work now cover kids expenses. Sounds like a plan.
I think, if we were willing to move to DH’s hometown and never go anywhere or buy anything unnecessary again we could retire now. Given that even DH needs to leave after 7 days there, that is not an option. Sort of like the POP’s retirement location tracker.
I already get paid to do mostly what I want to do, so I’m not really seeking retirement. And I like $$.
I like $ too. That is a major reason I may continue working even after I don’t technically have to.
My parents are 64 and they too have no idea when they’ll retire 🙂 They’ve always been good with money and they had/have high earning power, but having five kids delays things. They are at a point however, where their work is very much on their own terms.
Well, at least it is on their own terms! That definitely counts for something.
I don’t like setting firm dates for things that are going to occur decades in the future. Too much can change between now and then. I don’t know when my wife or I will officially retire but I think we will know (it will be obvious to us) when we finally get there.
I actually do like setting firm dates. What can I say? I’m a planner!
Can I make a suggestion? Saying retirement is something that will happen decades from now means you’ve accepted that retirement = 65 (or something similar). Who chained you to your desk and said you HAD to work that long? If you really want to head off to your cubicle for 45yrs then save the old fashioned recommendation of 10-15% and follow the traditional path. Instead I recommend you pick the age at which YOU want to be financially free to work or not (don’t call it retirement if that means “old” to you). Then work back from that age and figure out how much you need to save and what sort of lifestyle is required to achieve it.
If you save 50% of your take home you are done in 17yrs (so the new grad is done by 40). The other way to calculate it is to do up a budget for retirement and figure out what your annual spend would be as a retiree. Then multiply it by 25. That’s your target savings number that will allow you to withdraw 4% annually for ever. It’s enlightening to realize that every $100/mth you reduce/avoid in your retirement budget means $30K less you need to save to reach your goal ($100/mth = $1200/yr, $1200×25=$30,000). Makes you rethink whether or not you really need that _________ doesn’t it?
Are you making this suggestion to me? If so, you obviously didn’t read this post and definitely don’t read my site!
My husband and I are self-employed and work from home. We save at least 50% of our income already. We are on the path to be financially independent at 46 at the moment! And the only reason it is taking us that long is because we have two small kids.
My comment was in response to Brian’s reference to not setting date for things that will happen decades in the future (and lots of unplanned things that could come up in the interim). Sorry if you were offended. It sounds like you have a clear plan and a definite goal which is terrific. Brian sounded like he’d resigned himself to decades of work when there are actually lots of other scenarios. I didn’t figure that out until my mid 40s and constantly regret that.
My concern is always with “young-ish” people who assume retirement is something decades away and that can make it hard to commit to any sacrifices in the present when the prize seems so far away. As a 20something I was offered well meaning advice to save 10-15% of my income for retirement. Of course that is ideal for retirement at 65. Fortunately I saved at least that much, but now that I know a lot more about the math I constantly kick myself over what could have been if I’d stared at 50% savings, or more, from the beginning. I can’t change the past and am now on a far better track, but you can bet my kids will know the whole story well before they graduate. It doesn’t mean they’ll act on it, but at least they’ll make lifestyle choices knowing all their options and the long term implications. I too like setting goals and attaching dates. I need firm targets to motivate me and reinforce that I’m making progress and hitting all the interim milestones along the way . Congrats on your 50% savings rate and planned early retirement.
Don’t feel bad – neither do we!! I honestly don’t know if we will ever “retire.” I think we’ll always have side jobs that generate income strictly because we enjoy what we do! That also makes me stress less about retirement. Nowadays, it seems so easy to make money (to an extent…) that I don’t worry too much about the future. Of course, I still save as much as I can, but I really don’t think there will ever be a day that I’m not doing ANYTHING to generate at least some income (most likely, rental properties at the very least).
It can be tough to estimate things with little kids. My wife and I plan on kids and have a very rough idea of our retirement now. We fully expect that number to change once the little ones come around, but right now having that rough idea gives us something to reach for as opposed to just wondering if/when it will ever happen.
I love your conservative standpoint here. We too would rather have too much than too little saved, so we keep working, working, saving and paying off debt till we know it’s the right time. And I know we’ll know. 🙂
I think most people are unsure of when they can retire. Even if you have a neat little model that tells you that you will retire in x number of years, things can change. Let’s be honest: the economic environment changes quickly and without warning. Earnings change, too, as does cost of living. So I’d say if people were truthful they would admit they also do not know when they will retire.
With the insane real estate prices in Canada my original goal of freedom 55 might need to be reevaluated. I’ve got a rough goal but I’m well aware anything can change.
I really want to be done at 50. That seems like a good number, but who really knows? My calculations show in 8-10 years, we’ll have enough to walk away, but there are lots of variables in there as well. We could have to move if Jim wants to move up in his career. We could have to take care of his parents. I could get fired. Or maybe I’ll get close and not be able to really quit everything altogether. I think it has to be a work in progress or you might go mad thinking about all the maybes.
I don’t know when I’ll retire either. That’s not a statement of not being able to do the math, or not being able to make the math work out. It’s because I simply, flat out, without any reservations, do NOT want to retire. Take a look around….look at the people that reach retirement age and quit working. They sit in their homes, and do nothing, age faster, end up in retirement homes battling heath related issues the whole way. I look to people like my father, who “retired” about 6 years ago, but still spends his time as a maintenance man at a funeral home, and taking care of people’s lawns – at the age of 72. He doesn’t look or act anything like a 72 year old man. When my grandfather was 72 he sat in his chair all day and smoked a pipe while watching TV. When he did get up, he was fragile and limped around. Retire? Effing NEVER.
I agree switching from full time work to doing virtually nothing would lead to instantly feeling old. Perhaps if you change the terminology it adds some motivation. When do you want to be financially independent? At that point if you still love your work, great, keep working. It’s a lot easier to face Monday mornings if you love your job and know that if that changed you could just walk away. Not needing the money changes your perspective. Maybe when you are financially independent you’ll decide to work PT or take contracts only when and if it suit you. Not all work lends itself to that sort of flexibility, but I think yours might. May be you’ll volunteer. Maybe teach a class or two at a local college. Tutoring? Or just turn a hobby into a little side business that never has to actually make money since you don’t need it. I think the term retirement still carries a lot of assumptions with it that were based in our parents and grandparents time. Work hard until 65 then stop and do as little as possible. Now it just means you are financially set and moving on to the next phase of life where you make choices based on whatever interests you. Worst case I plan to retire at the end of 2020, but I’m working very hard to move up that date. I’ll probably take it very easy for the first few months, but then I’ll tackle the list of projects, classes, reading list and travel plans that I’ve been building for several years. I have a feeling I’ll actually be much busier after retirement than before.
There are uncertainties in life, but there are ways to manage them. Just because they are there, doesn’t mean we don’t bother with the calculations at all.
I’m personally aiming for 45. And while my federal income tax liability is higher than the average annual income, no complaints here.
Yes the freelancing thing does throw a curveball in the whole retirement savings thing. I’d like to think I’m going to strike it big here soon and catch up to everything I have’t been saving as a freelancer. 🙂 So yes, I have no idea either.
I think a lot of people have dates set, but it’s just a goal. When I did financial planning, that was one of the things I hated most–setting a date decades away. Who knows what could happen in between? Sure, there are some risk management things you can do to try to keep the train on the tracks, but even the most capable people have to deal with setbacks.
I guess to the early FI/retire crowd, it is a purely mathematical questions: http://mustachecalc.com/
But I know what you mean, I’m conservative and would be a little scared that money may run out. But if you enjoy what you do, you can just take on less projects or work on the ones you like. You don’t have to be completely retired.
P.S: I do have a pension so my latest date of retirement is 55/56. I know many co-workers who continue working because they can’t live on the pension since they live paycheck to paycheck. I do often hope that I can retire before then though.
My retirement plan is on a best-case scenario. Maybe not smart, and I might get disappointed, but I wanted to set a goal and shoot for it. Will it happen? who knows, but I’m going to try.
I don’t know when we will be able to retire. Our goals now are to just enjoy life while reasonably saving as much as we can. I know that if we keep with that then retirement will fit in somewhere 🙂
It’s probably a sin in the personal finance blogging world, but I honestly don’t spend much time thinking about retirement just yet. I’m so focused on making a good life for our family right now, since we have a young child and may want to add another to the mix. If you spend so much time thinking about what’s years down the line, are you really truly enjoying life right now? My father passed away before he had the chance to retire, and that’s never far from my mind. I want to soak up every moment with my little family right now, not always be concerned about a future that isn’t even guaranteed. Of course you have to think about the financial aspect and put that money aside, but if you get up every day counting down the minutes to retirement, that seems pretty sad.
Yeah, I’m definitely not spending every moment thinking about it. Just a blog post and my thoughts of the day! Lighten up! =)
I don’t care too much about retirement (early or otherwise), because I know very few people who actually retired in real life, and especially because my husband will be just starting his career (take 2) in 3 years after he completes his degree.
I am more committed to mid-term goals like making it possible for me to be a stay at home mom either before my husband’s graduation or shortly thereafter, and mentally and financially preparing to do an epic family adventure in 5-7 years (before our parents start to have some health problems that would make us not want to leave cell phone range for weeks at a time) even if we aren’t 100% financially independent at that point.
I’m with you Holly, I have no freaking clue when we are going to feel completely comfortable to declare retirement, but I am also not bothered by it. Year in and year out we work hard to increase our income and stay responsible with our spending so that we can make retirement a reality sooner than later, but we also have a young child and lots more life to live (and life in unpredictable) so we can’t know for sure.
Agreed that the planning gets murky when you take a hard look at your variables. Variable income is one of the trickiest ones.
I’ve given up on picking an exact date, and instead am looking for an exact figure to shoot for to be ‘FI’. Our new figure is a cool million.
Our goal is July 2020. Our current plan could be eerily similar for early retirement. While we participate in investing in tax deferred savings plans for retirement, our major emphasis is or rental real estate. I’m curious to know how long it would take to pay off your rental homes and use that as your primary income? I’m assuming expenses would need to drop and would drop just based on not having any mortgage payments.
*on rental real estate
Our rentals will be paid off in 11 years. Unfortunately, that’s right around the time my oldest should be getting ready for college. I don’t think that would be a good time to quit working- but hey, you never know!
I have no idea.
First of all, I’m the only wage earner. Tim gets $730 after Medicare premiums are taken out. So we’re not able to sock away the kind of money I’d like into savings/IRAs. It’ll be easier once we get Tim’s teeth paid for, but between that and the barrage of repair projects constantly going on (and the fact that we’ve been through two cards in 6 years thanks to accidents) plus the fact that I wasn’t able to contribute to retirement til 30 because I had been on disability….
Second, after you’ve relied on a government allotment each month, you’re not exactly psyched to go back. A paycheck is good for self-esteem. I don’t know if I’ll ever completely retire.
I completely agree! I was just chatting with my mom the other day how I don’t believe there will be pensions for much longer in Canada since companies continue to cut down or eliminate them at all. I’m eager to save on my own and not rely on something else like a pension or employer to help fund my retirement!
Totally makes sense to me–it really is impossible to predict future living expenses. Something that makes me feel more comfortable with our early retirement plan is that we won’t be going entirely sans income after we “retire.”
We estimate we’ll earn enough from various hobbies (aka side hustles) that we’ll be able to cover our living expenses. Thus, our savings/investments will be gravy. We’re also very conservative in our approach to our finances and always want to have a significant buffer. So, I totally get where you’re coming from.
I used the retirement calculator on J$ blog last week (I think or maybe the week before) and it said I’m never going to be able to retire. That’s a depressing thought, but I don’t believe it’s true. The calculator wasn’t built to factor in some things and as I keep paying off debt I am getting more and more financially secure all the time. I don’t know when or if I will ever retire, but it would be nice to only work because I want to instead of because I have to.
Sometimes it’s hard to predict the future and there’s no shame stating the fact. I’ve been running some calculation for our family and like you it’s hard to predict our future expenses as our little one grows up and when we have more kid(s).
I always work on the assumption: hope for the best and plan for the worst. I have no idea when I’ll retire. I’m now on the shady side of 50 and my daughter will finish university at the end of this year. Divorce destroyed my long term financial security so retirement is a luxury I’m not expecting to enjoy any time soon! I am, however, working on ramping up my revenue so I can rebuild my nest egg.
But… I kind of feel semi-retired now. I work at home, doing things I enjoy so even though I work more hours than ever before, I enjoy them a *lot* more. While that’s the case, I figure I have some time up my sleeve before retirement becomes a priority.
This is just how I feel sometimes. I think I tell my wife something different about retirement every day, and it drives her nuts!
Oh, nobody really knows, though — maybe people with a defined benefit plan? But how many people have those? Most PF bloggers are estimating based on market projections that may or may not hold. I’ve run numbers through various calculators, but mostly to reassure myself that I’m doing an ok if not great job of saving at the moment. I think what you’re doing — working, socking away money — is the right thing to do, and you can think about it again five years from now, or whenever you’ve accumulated a huge Scrooge McDuck pile of cash 🙂
I was the guy that had a 10 year count down to my first retirement but when the day came I admit that I wasn’t mentally ready and stayed another year. I didn’t have another date but when it hit me it hit me quick and my count down was 1 month and out the door I went. After some time off to recharge and just do whatever I wanted to do I began an encore career for a few years and my second retirement came to me 2 months before I set the actual date. Both retirements were based on when it was the right time.
Raise your kids, save your money like you are doing, live, love and enjoy your life. It’s more important to have FI so when you know its time to retire you can. No need to worry about setting a future date this early on. If you love what you are doing you may never enter into the traditional retirement.
I don’t have a date yet – wish it was today sometimes but alas…. The kids do make planning a bit more challenging. We choose not to move or make big financial moves but they have some idea of what we are working towards.
It sounds like you are on the right track to retire if everything continues to go well but your savings rate is amazing. I still have a lot of work left in me so I don’t know when I’d be able to retire but I know I don’t want to work in my 60s so my plan is to try to do everything I can so that I can slow down in my 40s, my son will be in college then and a big enough boy to take care of himself.
I think anyone who claims to have their retirement date nailed down to the specific month is a bit delusional if they\’re 10+ years out or more. So many things can happen that could change that – some good but mostly bad – such as an illness, workplace accident, sick family member etc that could easily derail the best of plans. There\’s really no point in being set on a specific retirement date if there\’s that much time to go because there are too many uncontrollable variables to factor in
A 24 year old told me the other day when he was going to retire. I laughed. There are sooo many unknown variables that it’s really hard to know for sure unless you are really close to retirement age. Lots can change between now and then if you have decades left. I wouldn’t worry too much about it because you are doing all the right things!
I actually don’t plan on ever retiring! I don’t mean to sound morbid, but I know far too many family members and close family friends who retired from a job they loved to then only deteriorate both mentally and physically shortly after. Having a greater purpose kept them going!
If you remain active and involved in social activities and your community after retiring that probably wouldn’t be a problem, but I also feel like if you truly love what you do, why not continue working for even just a few hours every week to keep yourself sharp.
I think that counting down the seconds until retirement is a little depressing and takes away from the joy that is currently into our life if we’re so fixated on that retirement date. Just my opinion though 🙂
The variable income card is a huge, huge one! Tell your five year old to figure out her life 😉
I have a coworker with one of those clocks, he can tell you how many days until he’s done if you walk up to him. He’s done sometime next year and obviously can’t wait. He’s tired of politics and whatnot and also wishes everyone knew as much about things as he does, forgetting that you have to start somewhere so a brand new mechanic obviously doesn’t know all there is to know yet.
For all my goal setting over the years, I actually don’t have a retirement date either! There are too many variables that would affect it that we can’t accurately calculate the costs of and therefore the impact on our future finances: an aging father, an unpredictable sibling, now our latest addition, Little Bean.
I do hope that it may be a reality in ten or so years, though, roughly. I’m not set on it, it’s just a nice round number to aim for.
I feel like a lot of the “I know when I am going to retire” crowd has it calculated out on a bunch of unsubstantiated assumptions, eg. I will get 8% return every year, expenses will be steady, etc. I don’t think people can really ever be sure of when – but they can ballpark it pretty closely.
I would much rather have a date that I could quit my job and survive solely on side hustles!
I think it’s a reasonable assumption that even most of the people who do all the “right things” don’t have an exact date for retirement. Sure, you can do your best to estimate, but when you’re still young it’s hard to know what life will throw at ya.
I’m in the same boat as you as far as prohibitive taxes and medical. I’m self-employed and have to pay $400 in medical just for myself. Crazily enough, it would be almost double that to go on my husband’s plan through his work. Yikes!
On our blog we like to talk about income you make from stocks that pay dividends. One of our goals is to become financially independent and hopefully live off the dividends. It sounds like you are blowing up your savings though, so you should definitely be on track to early retirement!